Its a battle of the 2nd and 3rd best records in the National League. Pittsburgh comes in having finished the regular season with a 98-64 record, the first time the Pirates finished with that many wins in a season since 1991. This marks the third time in as many years they will play host to the NL Wild Card Game. They advanced to a division series matchup with the Cardinals in 2013, but were shut out last year by the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants. Pittsburgh is 43-52 lifetime in the post season. Pittsburgh has five World Series titles to their credit, with the last win in 1979.
Meanwhile Chicago finished the year with a 97-65 record, the best record the Cubs have had since 2008, ironically enough the last time they made the playoffs (losing to the Dodgers in the divisional round). In the past, Chicago has a record of 28-55 lifetime in the postseason. Chicago has made one of the more dramatic turnarounds in Baseball, with the team finishing last year with a 73-89 record. Chicago hasn't won a World Series since 1908, they haven't won a playoff series since 2003 and haven't made it to the fall classic since 1945. During the regular season this year, Chicago went 11-8 against the Pirates.
Now that its been laid out how these got to where they are, lets see how they matchup tonight. Chicago is going to send out their ace Jake Arrieta, who finished this year 22-6. In 2014, Pittsburgh got lucky they didn't get to face Arrieta during the regular season. This year, Pittsburgh didn't get so lucky. Arrieta went 3-1 with a 0.75 ERA, 0.639 WHIP and 33 strikeouts over five starts against the Pirates. In fact, Arrieta has gone unbeaten over the last three starts against the Pirates, and gone at least seven innings in each start against Pittsburgh this year. Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen have the most plate apperances against Arrieta in their career, with McCutchen having the most success out of any of the Pirates hitters. Arrieta finished going 18-1 on the road this year, with a 1.60 ERA on the road. So it goes to show that he's just as comfortable pitching on the road as he is pitching at home.
While the Pirates have to take on Arrieta, the Cubs will have to face Gerrit Cole, who in his 3rd year in the big leagues finished the year 19-8. In his career, Cole is 7-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.101 WHIP over 56.1 innings of work. That includes 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA in four quality starts against them this season. Cole went at leas six innings in every start this season he made against Chicago. Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro have the most plate appearances against Cole, both going six for seventeen in their careers. Chicago's lineup seemed to have more success against Cole than Pittsburgh does against Arrietta.
If somehow you can get to the starters early, the edge has to go slightly to Pittsburgh in the pen. They have pitched more innings this season, which has made me a little leery about them if Cole struggles, but they have better save conversion rate than the Cubs do. Once you get the ball to the 9th with a lead, I'd trust Mark Melancon (51 saves in 53 opportunities) over Hector Rondon (30 saves in 34 opportunities). Home field advantage may not play a factor here. Yes I know that Pittsburgh won 53 games at home during the regular season, while the Cubs won 48 games on the road. You can pretty much throw those numbers out the window in the one game playoff.
Look at what happened to the Pirates last year against the Giants. They had to deal with Madison Bumgarner, who proved to be too much for the Pirates to handle. Same thing is going to happen to the Pirates again tonight. With a historically good second half under his belt that includes a 22-inning scoreless streak heading into the postseason, it's awfully hard to bet against Jake Arrieta at this point. He has been pitching at another level at the right time. Sure the Pirates have the playoff experience in their favor at the moment, but the Cubs have their best pitcher going, a man who has played lights out against the Pirates this season (as he has against everybody else this year for that matter). Tonight's the night that the Cubs bats out hit those of the Pirates.
Pick: Chicago Cubs
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