College Football Playoff Preview

Its time. After quite a bit of waiting, we are going to take another step in deciding a National Champion in College Football. This year the Semifinal has as good a matchups as any in years past. The Orange Bowl will pit Clemson against Oklahoma, while the Cotton Bowl will see Michigan State take on Alabama. Quite a few storylines to look into in both of these football games. Will underdog No. 1 Clemson hold off No. 4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl semifinal, or can the Sooners' momentum propel them to a win over the Tigers in Miami? Can the No. 3 Spartans topple the mighty No. 2 Crimson Tide, or will Alabama running back Derrick Henry be able to break Michigan State's strong defense? Here we go with a game breakdown of the two semifinals.

First up is the Orange Bowl, which pits #1 Clemson taking on #4 Oklahoma. This could be more of the high scoring game of the two bowl games. I mean think about it, Clemson, who averaged 38.5 points per game and Oklahoma, who averaged 45.8 points per game, are coming in as two of the country’s top 20 scoring offenses. Offense is going to be a big factor in this game too. Clemson managed to run the table this year, going 13-0, doing so with an overhauled offensive line from what they had a season ago. Clemson has been able to scramble and use the short pass to be successful this season, something that helps make up for what some would call a weakness in the O-Line. Oklahoma can possibly exploit that with guys on defense like Eric Striker, Charles Tapper and tackles Charles Walker and Matt Dimon. If those guys can put pressure on Deshaun Watson, then the Sooners might have a chance at this thing.

Speaking of pressure on the QB, Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield may have his hands full tonight. They are going against a Clemson team that many consider the best in the entire ACC during the regular season. One game that sticks out for Oklahoma is that win over Tennessee. They were down 17-0 in that football game at one point if you remember. The offense of the Sooners was held cold for three quarters, but they arose in the 4th and managed to get the win in double overtime. That happened against Tennessee, imagine what could possibly happen when you go up against one of the better defenses in all of College Football.

As a side note I think some involved with this football game may recall what happened last time these two schools squared off. Last year, Clemson blew Oklahoma off the field 40–6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Both sides have dismissed that game because of Oklahoma’s coaching turnover (eight of nine different position coaches), a vastly improved secondary and the addition of Mayfield. But it’s also worth considering that Watson didn’t play that day, as Clemson ragdolled Oklahoma with a backup quarterback Cole Stoudt (Sports Illustrated). Oklahoma may be decisively better than last years version, but Clemson has improved in some areas as well.

There have been some skeptics who have wondered how good the Big 12 really has been this year. TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State have been good this year, but by the time we got down towards the end of the season, they started to slip off the map. The only school to really make an impact out of that Big 12 was Oklahoma. They have had the 6th best offense in the entire country, the only school in the CFP that has had a better offense than the unbeaten Clemson. The difference is going to be the defense. Defense has been Clemson's bread and butter in recent years. Only one school in the playoffs has had a better defense then Clemson, and that's Alabama (who had the #2 ranked defense in the country). But we're not picking the national title game here, just the semifinal. Oklahoma has won on the back of its prolific offense. Clemson has shown it can with either way, and that's why I like the Tigers on New Year's Eve.

Now to the other National Semifinal Game. The Cotton Bowl will pit #2 Alabama taking on #3 Michigan State. The top ranked defense in Alabama is going to have a big factor in this game. But they are facing a good QB in Conor Cook. When Cook is on, he can fit passes into windows far narrower than the quarterbacks Alabama faced in the SEC. Its going to be a pretty good test for the Crimson Tide defense to deal with if Cook is playing as well as he has all year. For the Spartans to really make an impact, they have to be able to stretch the field out on the Tide defense, if they can't do that then they're in trouble. Part of what makes Alabama so tough to deal with is the fact that they keep rotating fresh bodies into each position, making it tough for opponents. Somehow, the only team to really be able to figure this Alabama defense out was Old Miss, who beat the Tide 43-37 back on September 19th. So if the Spartans were smart, that's a good game film to go look at.

You can make the same argument too for Alabama. The only team to beat the Spartans was Nebraska, who pulled out a 39-38 win on November 7th. One of the big things that the Crimson Tide have going for it, at least from an offensive perspective anyway, is the fact that they have the Heisman Trophy winner in their backfield. Derrick Henry has been all that and more this season. The big question I have heading into this football game is can Henry continue to carry such a heavy workload and still seemingly get stronger as the game progresses? It appears to be yes but with how well Michigan State can zero in on the oppositions star players. What has me a tad concerned is how well the offense can move if somehow Derrick Henry can't run the ball. He logged his largest carry totals in Alabama’s final two games and remained consistent in his ability to gain yards after first contact. He could possibly do what Ezekiel Elliott managed to pull off in last years College Football playoffs. Hell if any player out there can change the course of a game by touching the ball like Elliott did last year, it's Derrick Henry!

These two teams look fairly even, so a turnover or two could flip the result. Both teams could struggle early to gain yards on the ground, but don’t be shocked if each continues to pound the ball inside. Since the Tide shifted the emphasis of their offense to Henry following the loss to Ole Miss, Henry has found a way to break defenses. If Alabama’s defense can keep Cook in check, Henry may be able to break the dam late in the game. The Spartans are talented and could keep this close, but this is a team that had to grind out wins against its toughest competition. Doing that against Alabama is nearly impossible and without the threat of big plays, it's hard to see them upsetting the Tide outright.

So that's how I see the College Football Semifinals breaking down!