The Broncos advanced to their 10th AFC Championship Game with a 23-16 win over Pittsburgh last week at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Denver enters the game with a 7-2 all-time record in AFC Championship Games, including a 5-1 mark at home. That record includes a 26-16 victory over New England in the Broncos’ most recent AFC Championship Game appearance, when Denver quarterback Peyton Manning passed for 400 yards with two touchdowns to earn a berth in Super Bowl XLVIII. The game will mark the 17th meeting in the historic rivalry between Manning and Brady. The two quarterbacks have represented the AFC in nine of the past 14 Super Bowls, earning Super Bowl MVP honors in four of those contests.
It's Brady and Manning again for the AFC crown. This matchup is going to be a little bit different, only because, lets face facts, Peyton Manning hasn't looked like himself this year under center. Last week, the Defense for Denver helped get them the win over an injured Steelers team. Denver wide receivers had dropped passes left and right. That's not Peyton's fault his receivers have had trouble hanging onto the football this year, but it's making it tougher for Peyton. Luckily they have had a solid running game this year, one that helped control things last week against Pittsburgh. Denver top ranked defense has been its backbone all year long. Heading into Sunday, this defense is essentially at full strength, except for Chris Harris playing with a bum shoulder. Don't get me wrong, there is still a chance that Peyton Manning has a little more magic left in the tank, even if this could be his last go around. New England is going to have a tough test because Manning is healthier now then he was the last time these two teams faced each other in week twelve.
Form a New England perspective, they are starting to get healthy again. Edelman is back and he and Gronkowski have been giving Brady plenty of weapons to work with. Brady played out of his mind for most of the season, throwing for 4,770 yards and 36 touchdowns while getting just nine games out of wide receiver Julian Edelman and watching as other key pieces struggled with injuries. I mean think about it, Brady has been able to put up fantastic numbers with little running game to help offset the passing, and Brady didn't have much to work with this year as far as targets, yet he was still able to throw for 4,770 yards. That shows how great a QB the guy is. On defense, New England leaves a little to be desired because they did give up 20 points last weekend to Kansas City and allowed the Chiefs back into the football game. Still I think they have enough talent to hang in.
That defense in Denver is going to keep them in this football game. Look at last week against Pittsburgh as the prefect example of what they can do. That being said, New England is not Pittsburgh. The Patriots are better. Peyton is good and will try and make plays but Brady is just better right now. I don't trust Peyton's receiving core at the moment and I don't think his health is fully there right now. I love Peyton but this isn't going to be his year. New England will capitalize on Denver's mistakes.
Pick: New England Patriots!
The Panthers, who have won 21 of their past 23 games (including the postseason), advanced to their fourth NFC Championship Game with a 31-24 win against the Seattle Seahawks in the Divisional round last week. This will be the first time in team history the Panthers will host the NFC Championship Game.The Cardinals advanced to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2008 and the second time during the Super Bowl era. In the Divisional Playoff last week, Arizona defeated Green Bay 26-20 in overtime.
Arizona got a little bit lucky last week against Green Bay. I'm not taking anything away from what the Cardinals have done this year, I just feel they got a little lucky against Green Bay. They took care of what they had to in overtime, even though Green Bay's defense was nowhere to be found. Larry Fitzgerald and the receiving corp have made life miserable all season for opposing secondary. Arizona has a playoff win under its belt for the first time since 2009, so it makes the team feel a little more relaxed. On defense, they had to fix a few things, like how to be able to cover a deep pass near the end zone, but I think Coach Bruce Arians has made the adjustments so they won't be in that situation again. Arizona did have trouble closing out Green Bay last week, something that can't happen this week. Palmer has been good, but if Arizona can't find its legs in the passing game, the run game has got to be there, something that didn't show up last week. This defense made life a little tough on Green Bay last week, but they are really going to have to step it up against this Carolina team.
And speaking of stepping up, that's something the Panthers defense is going to have to do for a full sixty minutes on Sunday. Last weekend the Panthers got a huge jump on Seattle, but they fell asleep at the switch in the 2nd half and allowed the Seahawks back into the football game. That can't happen this weekend because, no knock on Seattle, the Arizona offense could put up a stronger fight. Carolina's defense will put pressure on Palmer early and need to keep it going throughout the day because if they don't Arizona could do to them what happened to Green Bay last week. Then again, Arizona didn't run with much effectiveness last week, something that Carolina can keep an eye on heading into this matchup. Arizona is know for putting pressure on the QB, so Cam Newton may have to rely on his legs a lot in this game. Same thing goes for using Jonathan Stewart, who is coming off a good game last week against Seattle. If Carolina can pick up the pressure well, then Newton is going to have himself another day.
So one of two things will happen Sunday. Either the Cardinals will score a few long touchdowns by attacking the weak links in the Panthers secondary (every cornerback but Norman) with their five-headed receiving corps, take running and options out of the Panthers playbook, and spark a rout. Or, option two, the Panthers will peck away at the Cardinals with field position and offensive balance, hold the Cardinals to some field goals, set up short touchdown drives with turnovers and hold on for dear life in the fourth quarter the way they so often do. Carolina has been running the league from the get go this year, and I don't think this week is going to be any different. Arizona is going to put up a fight and make this a fun game to watch. I don't think Carolina is going to have to hold on for dear life, I think that running game of the Panthers is what's going to be the difference. Looks like we could have a rematch from the end of the 2003 season.
Pick: Carolina Panthers!
So there you have it. Our picks for Championship Weekend!
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