So lets get right down to it. Here's how the Card shapes up. We will break down and predict each of the fights on the card.
Middleweights: Rafael Natal (21-7-1) vs. Tim Boetsch (19-10)
Should be one of the good opening fights on the card tonight. Natal is 95-1 in the UFC, which means he's got a bit of experience under his belt with the company. He had won four straight fights before losing to Robert Whittaker back in April, so he'll be looking to rebound in this fight. Natal has 36 takedowns in UFC competition, most all-time in middleweight division. Meanwhile Boetsch comes in at 19-10 record (10-9 UFC). The guy knows what he's doing in the cage, as 14 of his 19 wins have come by stoppage. On average, Boetsch lands 53 percent of significant strikes in UFC middleweight fights, which is sixth-highest among active UFC middleweights. And Boetsch is coming off a big win in his last fight over Josh Samman back in July. Boetsch has a good deal of one-punch knockout power, which is going to keep Natal back on his heels during this fight. Natal is durable and will probably have an advantage with judges simply because he does more.
Winner: Rafael Natal!
Welterweights: Vicente Luque (10-5-1) vs. Belal Muhammad (10-1)
This is a bit of a homecoming of sorts for Vicente Luque, who stepped in for Lyman Good, who was removed from the event after being flagged for a potential doping violation. Luque was born in New Jersey and lived there until the age of six, but visited New York City on a regular basis. Luque is 3-1 in UFC fights, and riding a three-fight win streak. Michael Graves was the last guy to beat Luque, that coming back in 2015 during the Ultimate Fighter. Nine of the ten fights that Luque has won, he has done so by stoppage (four by knockout, five by submission), so he can beat you in many different ways. Meanwhile, Muhammad is 10-1 in his career and 1-1 in UFC fights. In fact, six of his ten wins come by way of a decision. Muhammad has also had five takedowns in two UFC fights. Muhammad is a busy boxer-wrestler who mixes in both attributes well enough. But he's going against Luque, who is a heavy hitter, with a fight-changing right hand and a solid repertoire of knees and elbows from his Muay Thai background. He's definitely more dangerous.
Winner: Vicente Luque!
Lightweights: Khabib Nurmagomedov (23-0) versus Michael Johnson (17-10)
If Nurmagomedov can defeat Johnson tonight, he will have won eight consecutive fights inside the Octagon. He has already vowed No. 9 will be for nothing less than a lightweight title. Nurmagomedov has a right to be a bit of a grouch going into this fight. According to reports, Nurmagomedov says the UFC sent him two bout agreements for a title fight against Eddie Alvarez, only to turn around and book Alvarez to a title defense against Conor McGregor. Nurmagomedov suggested, in a recent radio interview, that he would never fight in the UFC again if it were to deny him a title shot after this fight. For the time being, however, he is focused on the task at hand. Nurmagomedov has had 23 fights, including seven in the UFC, and he has never lost a fight yet. He's scored a takedown in 5 of 7 UFC fights, including UFC-record 21 against Abel Trujillo. Meanwhile Johnson, who is 9-6 lifetime in the UFC, has nine knockdowns landed, which is the most in UFC lightweight history. Johnson has lost six of his ten career losses come by submission. Johnson's hand speed rivals that of any opponent, and an 81 percent takedown defense in his UFC career jumps off the page, especially in this matchup. But he's going up against a guy who has let to lose a fight, and I don't see that changing tonight.
Winner: Khabib Nurmagomedov
Featherweights: Frankie Edgar (20-5-1) versus Jeremy Stephens (25-12)
Frankie Edgar was hoping, before the year was out, to get another shot at Conor, but he hasn't been able to get that chance. So now its on to facing Jeremy Stephens. I don't think Edgar minds, he's just looking for a good fight. Edgar is 14-5-1 in the UFC, and is 5-0 in non-title featherweight fights. He's also got a ton of striking ability. Edgar's 1,871 total strikes landed in UFC competition are the fifth most in UFC history. But lets not get the facts mixed up, Jeremy Stephens is no slouch. Sure he's 25-12 lifetime in MMA fights, but he's just 12-11 when he steps inside a UFC cage. He does have one thing going for him though, in that 17 of his 25 wins have come by knockout. Stephens has struggled a bit as of late, allowing six takedowns in past four UFC fights. Stephens' reputation is very much tied to his knockout power and although he has put in work to elevate the other areas of his game, it's no secret that power is his best attribute. But Edgar is much quicker, and his wrestling backround should give him an edge. Edgar has the footwork and timed shots advantage, which will be big in this fight.
Winner: Frankie Edgar
Women's bantamweights: Miesha Tate (18-6) versus Raquel Pennington (8-5)
This is going to be a fun one to watch, as both Tate and Pennington are pretty evenly matched. Tate has been on her game, for the most part, as of late. She's 18-6 record, and 5-3 in the UFC. Tate had a 5-fight win streak snapped in loss to Nunes back in July at UFC 200. So she's going to look to rebound in this fight. Oh and Tate has scored takedowns in 6 of 8 UFC fights (9 total takedowns). She's not afraid to take this fight to the ground, where she can excel. Raquel Pennington is 8-5 lifetime, including going 5-2 in the UFC. Pennington is riding a 3-fight win streak, her last loss coming to Holly Holm back in February 2015. Pennington has a +71 significant strike differential in UFC fights (356-285). Pennington has an all around game, without much a definitive style. Tate figures to have a grappling advantage, especially if she's able to create scrambles with regularity. Tate has always flourished when a fight falls under a little chaos.
Winner: Miesha Tate
Welterweights: Kelvin Gastelum (12-2) versus Donald Cerrone (31-7)
This fight has been removed from the card because Gastelum missed weight.
Middleweights: Chris Weidman (13-1) versus Yoel Romero (11-1)
Another hometown kid comes to his backyard for a fight. Chris Weidman, a native of Baldwin New York, gets a shot to fight on a very big stage in his backyard. Weidman put in hours and hours of work into the UFC's lobbying efforts to legalize MMA in New York. His dream finally came true tonight and he's on the card. Weidman almost missed the fight due to a herniated disk in his neck. But his health came to fix itself out, so here he is. Weidman is 9-1 lifetime in the UFC, this fight tonight being first non-title fight since July 2012. Weidman has a 56 percent takedown accuracy, which is the second highest among active UFC middleweights. he's going up against Yoel Romero, who is 11-1 in his career and a perfect 7-0 in UFC fights. in fact, nine of the eleven wins Romero has have come by knockout Romero has a 78 percent takedown defense, which is the fifth highest among active UFC middleweights. This one is a little tough to predict. Weidman will pressure and should have success doing so, but his guard needs to be up at all times. Romero is good but Weidman is better.
Winner: Chris Weidman
Strawweight championship: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (12-0) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-0)
Battle of unbeatens for the Strawweight title! A battle of wills to see who has the best in the business today. Jedrzejczyk is unbeaten at 12-0 and is 6-0 in the UFC. This is her fourth defense of UFC women's strawweight title and she has outlanded opponents 575-195 in significant strikes in her UFC title fights. Meanwhile her opponent, Karolina Kowalkiewicz is 10-0, and is 3-0 in UFC fights. She has won her past five fights by decision Kowalkiewicz has a +95 significant strike defense in UFC fights, which could make things very tough for Joanna. Kowalkiewicz can be very, very efficient with her knees in the clinch, which could zap the energy of a Jedrzejczyk (who cuts a good amount of weight to fight at 115), but Jedrzejczyk's offensive firepower still wins out.
Winner: Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Welterweight championship: Tyron Woodley (16-3) vs. Stephen Thompson (13-1)
A very solid fight between these two guys should be on the slate for the night. Woodley is 16-3 lifetime and 6-2 in UFC fights. Five of the ten previous champions have defended welterweight title at least once. Woodley has a 68 percent significant strike defense, which is best among active UFC welterweights. He's going up against Stephen Thompson, who's 13-1, while going 8-1 in UFC fights. Thompson has a seven-fight win streak. His last loss came at the hands of Matt Brown at UFC 145 back in April of 2012. Thompson has a 4.7 strikes landed per minute rate, which is sixth-highest among active UFC welterweights. Tyron Woodley has a background in wrestling, since he did it in college. Here though, I don't think it will be much help, because Thompson has not surrendered a takedown since 2012, which was also the last (and only) time he suffered a loss. Thompson's size and style creates so much real estate between himself and an opponent, which will be a big edge in this fight.
Winner: Stephen Thompson
Lightweight championship: Eddie Alvarez (28-4) vs. Conor McGregor (20-3)
This is the big one. its the fight that everybody has been talking about leading up to tonight, and for good reason. Its a battle of two of the very best in the business. With all his talk, its easy to see why Conor McGregor is the man in MMA right now. He can run his mouth, which makes for great TV, and he can back it up in the cage as well. Eddie Alvarez is coming to this fight to try and shut McGregor up for good. McGregor is 20-3 in his career and 8-1 in the UFC. he is seeking to become just the third man ever to win UFC titles in two divisions, with Randy Couture and BJ Penn being the other two. McGregor has earned 17 of 20 wins by knockout, six of which have come in the UFC, which is tied for most since 2013. Eddie Alvarez is no slouch. He's 28-4, with a 3-1 UFC record. oOf note, none of the previous seven lightweight champions lost in their first title defense. Oh and Alvarez has earned 15 of his 28 wins by knockout. So many have doubted McGregor's ability to handle a well-conditioned grappler. The inevitable matchup has been given its own name: "The wrestler question." This should get answered one way or another.
Winner: Conor McGregor
(Stats and info provided by ESPN.com)
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