In the opening round, the number one seeds have nothing to worry about, because a sixteen seed has never beaten a number one seed. I'm sure there's a chance it could change but not this year. I don't see Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, and North Carolina having anything to worry about, because they will all move on. The question is, will all four of them reach the final four? There's only once in history that all four number one seeds have faced off in the final four, that was in 2008 (Kansas (champion), North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis). We will answer the question of this years top seeds will all make the final four a little later on, but first lets get back to some of the bracket number breakdowns.
If your a two seed in this tournament, you better watch your back, because there have been eight times where you've been knocked off by a 15 seed, it happened last year where Middle Tennessee beat Michigan State. So Louisville, Kentucky, Arizona and Duke need to stay on their toes. A three seed hasn't fared much better, as 21 times in the tournament they've been beaten by a 14 seed. So, yeah Baylor, Oregon, Florida State, and UCLA better keep an eye open. Of all the opening round matchups, the one that produces the most upsets is the six versus the eleven seeds. In the past, there have been 46 instances where the 11 seed knocked off the six seed. There is some hope for the lower seeds to go deep into a tounrament. Remember Florida Gulf Coast making it all the way to the sweet sixteen in 2013, yeah they were a 15 seed, the lowest seed ever to get that far. The lowest seed to ever reach the elite eight was a 12 seed, Missouri did that in 2002. As far as the fianl four goes, we've seen an 11 a 10 a 9 and an 8 reach that far. Lowest seed to ever make the title game was an 8 seed, which has happened three times. the only 8 seed ever, whicch is the lowest total ever to win a title, was Villanova, who won it all in 1985. The other two teams, Butler in 2011 and Kentucky in 2014, came up just short. That's why they call this March Madness, because anything can and usually does happen in this tournament.
If past performances have been indication of anything, then the Pac 12 the ACC and the Big Ten have the best chances. ACC teams have 16 national titles, followed by the Pac-12 with 15 (but they haven't seen a tyitle since 1997 with Arizona and UCLA has 11 but they haven't won since 1996) and the Big Ten has 11 titles (last coming with Michigan State in 2000).
That's just some of what's gone down in the past, but that was then and this is now, so lets get right into it. It'll take way too long to break down every game. Instead we will preview any upsets from the first three rounds then break it down from the elite eight right through the title game.
First Round:
9. Vanderbilt def 8. Northwestern
This is the first time ever Northwestern is playing in the tournament, so there's going to be a lot of pressure. I know they have the better record, but Vanderbilt has the edge in big game experience. Plus Vanderbilt has a winning record in their last ten games, whereas Northwestern doesn't. Vandy gest the win.
10. Wichita State def 7. Dayton
The only reason I'm saying that this is an upset is because of the seeding. The Shockers are a 30 win team this year, how the hell they ended up as a 10 seed is really beyond me. Dayton is a good basketball team but the Shockers are a better one and they'll move on to the round of 32.
Round of 32:
6. Maryland def 3. Florida State
Both teams had the same number of losses during the regular season, each losing eight games. Dwayne Bacon has been the leading scorer for the Seminoles, but there's is a little depth behind him. Sure there isn't much scoring punch in Maryland as far as depth goes, but I got a feeling its better then that of Florida State. I smell upset here with this game.
Sweet Sixteen:
N/A
Elite Eight:
N/A
Final Four:
1. Gonzaga def 1. Villanova
Villanova will be in the hunt to be the first back to back champion since 2007 and 2008. The run ends here. Gonzaga has just one blemish on its record, and yet still has its share of doubters. Some feel this is the best Zags team ever, strong on both ends of the court and featuring quality size to go with the leadership of Nigel Williams-Goss (16.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.8 APG). Is this the year the Bulldogs finally get to the Final Four? Or is another disappointing result as a high seed in the cards? They have to try to get by the defending champs, who are lead by Josh Hart (18.9 PPG, 6.5 RPG), who is top-five nationally in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, 2-point field goal percentage and free throw percentage. I just think that, even though Gonzaga hasn't really been tested till the tournament but they have the edge because they will have played better. Villanova just runs out of steam here.
2. Kentucky def 2. Louisville
Kentucky is a very balanced team here and the fact that they are a 29 win team, compared to the 24 wins from Louisville. To be fair, Louisville is among the most efficient teams in the nation on both sides of the ball, something that can be attributed to their willingness to routinely go eight deep. Free throw shooting could be an issue, but it hasn't caught up to the Cardinals yet, as they have no real bad losses. With Kentucky, Malik Monk has shined as a freshman, averaging 21 points per game, and De'Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo and Isaiah Briscoe are each averaging at least 13 PPG. The Wildcats rank among the top teams on both ends of the court. I know there's only three players on this team who don't have more then two years experience but this is the time of the year that the kids grow up quickly. That's what's going to happen here.
National Championship
1. Gonzaga def 2. Kentucky 79-73
As good as Kentucky has been up to this point, they are going to run into a better team in Gonzaga. The Zags have been a top team all season long. They've been in the top ten in the nation since week three of the season, and have been a top five team in the polls since week eight of the polls being released. To make this memorable run even sweeter if your the Zags is the fact that they will knock off the defending national champs in the process.
So that's how the tournament, at least as I see it, breaks down. Let the Madness Begin!
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