Saturday, January 13, 2018

NFL Divisional Round Preview

Wild Card weekend has come and gone and we are now down to eight teams left in the chase for the Lombardi Trophy. There's quite a few storylines going into divisional weekend in the NFL. Can both the Patriots and Falcons take another step towards a possible rematch in the big game? Can Jacksonville pull off the upset and play better then they did last week? Can Minnesota take another step to becoming the first team ever to play in its home stadium in the big game? All these questions and so much more will be answered this weekend. Here's how the games break down.

First up on Saturday at 4:35 is the Wild Card winning Atlanta Falcons taking on the NFC East Champion Philadelphia Eagles. Atlanta is coming off winning the Wild Card win over the Rams, which now puts the Falcons at 10-13 all time in the playoffs. Atlanta is in the divisional round for the 2nd straight year and tenth time in team history. Atlanta is trying to make it to the NFC Championship for the 2nd straight year and 5th time overall. They are going up against an Eagles team who won the Eastern division at a 13-3 record. Philly is in the playoffs for the first time since they won the division back in 2013 and they're looking for their first win in the playoffs since 2008. The Eagles are 19-21 all time in the playoffs. This marks the 4th ever meeting between the two teams in the playoffs, with Philadelphia having won two of the previous three meetings.

This marks the first time since 1975 that the top seed in the conference is actually considered the underdog, but that's the case here and with good reason. Philly did finish the year with a 13-3 record which was tops in the NFC, but since the injury to Carson Wentz. With Wentz out, the Eagles have had to rely on Nick Foles. Now Foles is a good quarterback, but with the year that Wentz had, Foles is viewd as a step back. I could see Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount getting a lot of touches in this game. For Philadelphia to even have a chance in this game, they must stay out of third-and-long situations, those in which Nick Foles’ lack of decisiveness could be problematic against a Falcons secondary that lately has been outstanding in on-ball coverage. Foles hasn't converted a 3rd down pass for a 1st down since week fifteen against the Giants. Oh yeah and the Eagles have lost four straight playoff games.

They have to deal with a Falcons team that was able to shut down the running game in Los Angeles and outplay a tough Rams team. Atlanta's favorite weapon in the pass game, Julio Jones can move around to either side of the field, which will make matchups for the Eagles defense tough. Sure, Philly has one of the better front sevens in all of football, but they are going to be really tested by this Falcons offense. They have Julio over the top and as an added threat in Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman. But don't be surprised if the Eagles defense really puts pressure on Matt Ryan, something that the Eagles specialize in, especially in third and long situations.

This is going to be a solid game to watch. Atlanta is coming in hot, having won seven of their last nine games, including last week. Philly has a good defense, but they will start to get gassed as the day goes along. Atlanta will control the ball, control the clock and take the game.

Prediction: Atlanta by 10!

Next up on Saturday at 8:35 is the Wild Card winning Tennessee Titans taking on the AFC East Champion New England Patriots. Tennessee is coming of a thrilling comeback win over Kansas City a week ago, the first win for the Titans in the playoffs since 2003. Tennessee is looking to get to the AFC title game for the first time since 2002, something that the Titans have done only four times in the history of the franchise. Tennessee is now 15-19 all time in the playoffs. As for New England, they've now won the AFC East for the 9th straight year and fifteen times in the last seventeen years, finishing the regular season at 13-3. New England is looking to make the AFC Championship game for the 7th straight year and 14th time in the history of the franchise. New England is 32-19 all time in the playoffs. This marks the 3rd all time meeting between the two teams in the playoffs, with the team splitting the first two playoff meetings.

Tennessee has an uphill battle ahead of them this weekend. As good as Mariota was last weekend, he has had a touch of inconsistency during the course of the year. He's a good quarterback, as was evidence by being able to help lead his team in the comeback. Also, to be fair, Derrick Henry was a big reason for the Titans win last weekend, which was the best of his early two year career in the league. Expect a big game, or at least a big effort, out of Henry against the Patriots again this week. If the Titans really want to have a shot, Mariota and the passing attack have to get it going.

New England is very tough to beat as of late come the playoffs, they are 20-4 at home in the post season. Some might be critical of New England, as this could be viewed as a trap game. Reason being is that the Patriots could be potentially focused on playing the Steelers next weekend. But both teams have to get there first. Tom Brady still has plenty of firepower to work with, having the best tight end in the game in Rob Gronkowski and a couple of other good pass catchers in Brandin Cooks and Julian Edelman. Defensive Coordinator Matt Patricia is going to find a way to try and put pressure on Mariota and find a way to shut down Henry.

This game is going to be easy to pick. I'll give Tennessee credit for being able to come back against KC last week, but New England is better then Kansas City. And they better all around then the Titans. The game is in New England, a place the Patriots rarely lose during playoff time. Tom Brady is going to play like Tom Brady. Interesting state, Brady has more Super Bowl rings than Mariota, Nick Foles, Blake Bortles, and Case Keenum have playoff starts combined. This one isn't going to be fun if your a Titans fan

Prediction: Patriots by 14!

Moving on to Sunday at 1:05 its the AFC South Champion Jacksonville Jaguars taking on the AFC North Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. Jacksonville is coming off a win over the Bills in the Wild Card Game last week, moving their record to 6-6 all time in the playoffs. The win last week was the first one for the Jaguars since a 2007 win over the Steelers. If the Jags win this week, it will be the 3rd ever trip to the AFC Championship game. As for Pittsburgh, they finished the year 13-3, winning the AFC North for the 2nd year in a row and third time in the last four years. Pittsburgh has won four of their last six opening round playoff games and they are looking to move on to the AFC title game for the 17th time in team history. The Steelers are 36-4 lifetime in the playoffs. This marks the 2nd ever meeting between the teams in the playoffs, with Jacksonville beating Pittsburgh in their only other meeting in 2007.

Jacksonville is coming off an ugly win over the Bills last week, a game in which Blake Bortles had more rushing yards (88) then he did throwing yards (87). If the Jags want to have any chance in this football game, they are going to try and replicate the success they had in week five of this year when they pulled out a 30-9 win in the same building they're playing in on Sunday. Keep handing the ball off and let the run game do its thing. When the run game might not be working, Bortles has to be on top of his game through the air if the Jags offense is going to have any hope of putting up points. On defense, the Jags are going to put a LOT of pressure on the Steelers. Sacksonville likes to blitz and they have the athletic players to be able to pull it off. The Jags defense, which is lead by Calais Campbell, Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, will make life miserable for the Steelers.

As for Pittsburgh, I don't see Ben Rothlisberger having the five pick meltdown that he had in the week five loss to Jacksonville. He is a different quarterback once the playoffs get rolling. Oh yeah, Big Ben now has a healthy Antionio Brown, something he hasn't really had available to him since Christmas. The final part of the Killer B's, Le'Von Bell has been held to under 100 yards rushing in all but one game since week seven, so he's going to have to get it going. Having watched Bell in the past will be an indication of how good he is. On defense or the Steelers defense to make any noise, which fans know they can do, Javon Hargrave, Stephon Tuitt and Cameron Heyward are going to have to make plays in the backfield. They are going to have to make Bortles throw the football, which he has had some inconsistency as of late doing.

This is going to be a totally different animal that the Jaguars are having to deal with this week, as compared to playing Buffalo last week. Pittsburgh is an experienced bunch who know how to get it done when its all on the line. Jacksonville got a little lucky last week, that won't happen again this week. There's no denying that the defense is great, and having a great defense can take you far. But if you don't have a player under center who can somewhat match up with that defense, then its not going to matter. No denying Bortles is good, but its not enough this week

Prediction: Steelers by 10!

Finally, Sunday at 4:40 we have the NFC South Champion New Orleans Saints taking on the NFC North Champion Minnesota Vikings. New Orleans is coming off a huge win over Carolina last week, which improved the Saints playoff record to 8-9 all time. New Orleans has now made the divisional round for the 6th time in team history and is looking to get back to the NFC title game for the first time since 2009. Minnesota, meanwhile, finished the year 13-3, winning the division for the 2nd time in three years and 21st total division title. Minnesota is looking to get to the NFC title game for the first time since 2009. Minnesota is 19-28 lifetime in the playoffs. This is the 4th meeting between the two teams in the playoffs, with the Vikings having won two of the last three games.

This is going to be a lot different then what you saw when these two teams met in week one. Sam Bradford started that game for Minnesota, but this is now Case Keenum's team. He's been a big factor this year, avoiding turnovers this year by tossing just seven interceptions to 21 touchdowns. He's got a solid run game to work with in talented backs like Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray, and a receiving core filled with Stefon Diggs, Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph. Minnesota has a solid defense that takes a few fans back to the days of the Purple People Eaters in the 1970s. That defense is going to be good, very good.

They're going against a solid one-two rushing attack that New Orleans has. Mark Ingram and Alvan Kamara have combined to lead the NFL in rushing yards (1,852), rushing TDs (20), scrimmage yards (3,094) and scrimmage TDs (25). Yeah, they're kinda good. But if somehow, the Vikings find a way to shut them down, Drew Brees is no slouch. In seven games versus top-10 total defenses, Brees has thrown 10 TDs to three INTs for a 110.1 passer rating and 8.8 yards per attempt, which shows that he knows how to step his game up when the game is on the line.

This game is indoors, which is about an even benefit for both teams. New Orleans has been playing great all year, there's no debate about that. The only thing is, the Saints have just one road playoff win in franchise history. I have a feeling that could end up hurting them. Minnesota is looking to become the first team ever to play in the Super Bowl in their own home building. No host city has ever had their team play in the big game. Minnesota has what it takes to take one step closer to that this week.

Prediction: Vikings by 3!

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