If you are a team in this tournament that has a seed between 8 and 16, then your odds of going deep into the tournament aren't very good. If your a 16 seed, which this year is Coastal Carolina, Albany/Mt. Saint Mary's, Weber St and either Cal Polytechnic or Texas Southern, you don't stand much a chance to go deep because no 16 seed has ever gotten to the sweet sixteen. So that's pretty much a given they won't go far. A team might still surprise you but I don't see a 16 beating a 1 seed this year. In fact a 16 has never beaten a 1 in the tournament so that's pretty much a lock. It's a safe bet to say that Florida, Virginia, Wichita State and Arizona are going to be moving on in the tournament.
A 15 seed has only made it that far once and that was Florida Gulf Coast last year. So 15 seeds are in just as much trouble. Teams that have a 2 seed have gone 109-7 all time against a 15 seed, so the odds are in the favor of the 2's in the opening round. I can't see Kansas, Villonova, Michigan and Wisconsin getting upset to start the tournament.
A 13 and/or 14 seed have made it to the sweet sixteen eight times in history. None of them have made it to an elite eight. The 12 seed have fared a tad better, having made a sweet sixteen once, UW-Milwaukee (2005) and one elite eight appearance from a twelve seed, that being Missouri (2002). I'm not saying the 12 seed this year will be better but historically, they have a slightly better shot. Teams that have a 3 seed usually play well in the opening round, going 99-11 against a 13 seed. This year the 3 seeds are Syracuse, Iowa State, Creighton and Duke, and they should have no problem moving on. A 4 seed has had a little more trouble in the opening round, going 91-25 against the 13 seeds. Michigan State, UCLA, San Diego State and Louisville are the 4 seeds this year and San Diego State may be the only one I can see having trouble with its opening round opponent, New Mexico State. All four should be able to move on though
An 11 seed has done pretty well at times in the tournament. We've had two 11 seeds reach the Elite Eight, Loyola Marymount (1990) and Temple (2001). We've also seen an 11 seed reach the final four three times, in the form of LSU (1986), George Mason (2006) and VCU (2011). Whoever is the 6 seed has gone 77-39 against an 11 seed in history. This year, North Carolina, Baylor and Ohio State will do what they have to and take down the 11 seed. The other matchup is going to be an upset. Iowa and Tennessee have to play each other to see who gets Massachusetts. Now if Tennessee can get the win then I can see them pulling another upset and beating the 6 seed, but if it's Iowa then I don't know if they can. It depends on who comes out on top in that play in game.
If your a ten seed, then you have some decent odds to go deep, since it has happened eight times in history that a ten seed has made the elite eight. This year however, odds don't favor the ten seeds in the opening round. Saint Josephs has to play Connecticut, Stamford has to play New Mexico, BYU has to play Oregon and Arizona State has to play Texas. Stamford may be the only one of the four ten seeds to pull off an upset, the other three I can see falling.
Finally we have the most even matchup of the opening round which is the eight vs. nine seeds. Twice in history a nine seed has gone deep, Boston College in 1994 went to the Elite Eight, and Wichita State last year made the final four. Eight seeds have had pretty good success. North Carolina and Wisconsin in 2000 went to the final four, Butler went to the title game in 2008 and Villanova won the whole thing in 1985 all as the eight seed. Kentucky, Gonzaga and Memphis will hang on as the eight seed while Pittsburgh will move on as the nine seed.
Wichita State comes into the tournament as the only team that went undefeated during the regular season, as they went 34-0. They become the 18th team to ever go into the tournament unbeaten, and are the first school to do so since the UNLV Running Rebels did it in 1991. There have been seven teams in history that have totally run the table, going undefeated en route to a national title, with the last team to do it being Indiana in 1976.
Louisville is the defending national champions, sitting as the four seed in the midwest region. They have a very solid chance to repeat as the National Champions but they have to go through the likes of Michigan, Duke and Wichita State to make it out of the region and advance in the tournament. The Cardinals are good but I don't see them winning a second straight championship.
So there you have it, a rough breakdown of the NCAA Men's Basketball tournament by the numbers. As the tournament goes along we will update you with all the happenings and any major upsets that may take place.
No comments:
Post a Comment