Tuesday, May 19, 2015

NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals Preview

It's time. The first two rounds of the NBA Playoffs are in the books, we have reached the conference finals. On paper, through the first two rounds at least, these playoffs have gone almost according to the script. Think about it. The only "upsets" in the entire playoffs were the fifth seeds in both leagues beating the four seeds in the opening round. Otherwise, the rest of the seeds have gone according to script. By the time we got to the second round, three of the four series went six games, while the last one went down in seven games. We have the top four teams in the league left standing, the top two in each conference, for the 2nd year in a row. So with that being said, here we go with our preview of the Conference Finals

We start off with the East as its the Top Seeded Atlanta Hawks taking on the Second Seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. Since the league switched to the current playoff format, this marks the first time ever the Hawks have gotten to the Eastern Conference Finals. They got here by beating the Nets in the opening round and the Wizards in the 2nd round, winning both series in six games. Atlanta is trying to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since losing to the Celtics in 1961. Meanwhile, Cleveland is back in the east finals for the first time since 2008. The Cavs got here by sweeping the Celtics in the opening round and following that up with a six game win over the Bulls in round two. Cleveland, should they pull out a win, will make it back to the finals for the first time since 2007. This is the second playoffs meeting between these two teams, with the Cavaliers winning the only meeting, that coming in the 2nd round in 2009 (a four game sweep by the Cavs). Atlanta won three of the four meetings between the teams in the regular season.

Here are the dates and times for every game in this series:
May 20 8:30 pm Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks Philips Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
May 22 8:30 pm Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks Philips Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
May 24 8:30 pm Atlanta Hawks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, Ohio
May 26 8:30 pm Atlanta Hawks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, Ohio
May 28 8:30 pm Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks* Philips Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
May 30 8:30 pm Atlanta Hawks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers* Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, Ohio
June 1 8:30 pm Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks* Philips Arena, Atlanta, Georgia

With this series, you have teams that seem to be polar opposites of each other. Look at the Cavs. You would think, when the playoffs started, they would be a heavy favorite. Things look a little bit differently now. Kevin Love is hurt and won't be back in the post season, while Kyrie Irving hasn't looked quite the same as he did during the regular season. Same can be said about Lebron too. James has had a down year, by his standards, in the playoffs. In the series against Chicago, Lebron was good but wasn't GREAT. With Irving and Love out, Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert have done enough to step up on the defensive side of the game, and allow the team’s offense churn out victories. What makes the Cavs who they are is their staid pick-and-rolls and isolations. It really hasn't been too pretty but it has been effective in getting the Cavs where they are right now. Atlanta is at the opposite end of the spectrum, as they are motion based offense, trying to keep players moving at all times. Atlanta has been able to get different guys lead the way in scoring in the last round. You get guys like Jeff Teague, DeMarre Carroll and Paul Millsap. Sure Cleveland had a big performance from Matthew Dellavedova in game six, but the Hawks have a little more balance.

Yes Atlanta is coming into this series as the top seed, but the Cavs are still the heavy favorite, they have been all season long. Nothing has really changed. What I think is going to be a difference here is team depth. Sure Atlanta has an advantage up front. Cleveland has enough depth of the bench to compensate for it. Going to be a tough series but the Cavs will take it!

Pick: Cavaliers in 6!

Now to the Western Conference Finals, as its the top seeded Golden State Warriors taking on the second seeded Houston Rockets. Golden State is playing in the conference finals for the first time since 1975, ironically enough that year was the last time the Warriors also reached the NBA Finals and won the championship. The Warriors got here by beating the Pelicans in an opening round sweep, and followed it up with a six game series win over the Grizzlies. As for the Rockets, they are back in the Western Conference Finals for the first time since a loss to the Jazz in 1997. Houston is looking to back to the NBA for the first time since they won their last title in 1995. The Rockets got here by beating Dallas in five in the opening round, and followed it up with a seven game series win over the Clippers. This marks the first ever meeting in the playoffs between Golden State and Houston. Golden State won all four meetings between the teams during the regular season.

Here are the dates and times for every game in this series:
May 19 9:00 pm Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
May 21 9:00 pm Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
May 23 9:00 pm Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets Toyota Center, Houston, Texas  
May 25 9:00 pm Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets Toyota Center, Houston, Texas  
May 27 9:00 pm Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors* Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
May 29 9:00 pm Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets* Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
May 31 9:00 pm Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors* Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

I think it is a safe thing to say that the Rockets got a little bit lucky to get here. Los Angeles did blow a 19 point lead in game six of the series to allow the Rockets back in and have them take it in seven games. Lets face facts, the gap between the Warriors and Rockets in this series is a little obvious. James Harden had played outstanding in the regular season. One minor problem though. Harden hasn't been a major factor in this last series win over the Clippers. Facts are the Rockets were outplayed in the middle of the series by the Clippers. Houston didn't really win the series as much as the Clippers lost it. Golden state had a little trouble going against Memphis in the last round, but they were able to make the defensive adjustments after gam three, came back and rolled in the rest of the series.

If the regular season was any indication, this series could be a cake walk. Houston lost all four games of the regular season between these two teams. Oh and the average margin of victory that the Warriors have had? They won by an average of thirteen points. As good as Harden and Howard have been for the Rockets this season, Golden State has Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green to deal with Houston’s center, and some combination of Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala and Stephen Curry to try to stop Harden. Houston may get a game or two but it won't be close.

Pick: Warriors in 5!

So there we have it. The predictions for the Conference Finals in the NBA!

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