Thursday, October 8, 2015

ALDS Preview

Here we got. The nitty gritty is here in the Major League Baseball playoffs are here, as we start the Divisional Round in the American League. Four teams are left standing in the American League, all of which have played in at least one World Series. Houston has made it once (2005 losing to the White Sox), Kansas City has made it three times (lost last year to San Francisco), Texas has made twice (lost in 2011 to St. Louis) and Toronto has made it twice (1993 win over Philadelphia).  Kansas City (1985) and Toronto (1992, 1993) have won World Series crowns. So now lets break down the two ALDS Matchups.

First up its the American League Central champions, and the team with the best record in the AL, the Kansas City Royals taking on the Wild Card Winners the Houston Astros. Kansas City won the Central division with a 95-67 record, finishing twelve games ahead of the 2nd place Twins. This marks the 2nd straight year that the Royals have made the playoffs. Before last year's run, the Royals hadn't won a playoff series, let alone made the playoffs, since their 1985 World Championship season. Kansas City is looking to make it to the Series for only the 3rd time in team history. As a team, the Royals are 29-29 lifetime in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Houston comes in after a win over the New York Yankees in the Wild Card game. Houston finished the season with an 86-76 record, good for 2nd place in the AL West, behind Texas. This marks just the tenth time in franchise history that the Astros are in the playoffs, the first time since 2005. The 86 wins are the highest total that Houston has had since 2008 (where they finished 3rd in the division). Houston is 21-35 lifetime in post season games. The two teams have never met before in the postseason. During the regular season, Houston won four of the six meetings between the teams.

Here's the date and times for every game in this series:
October 8 Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals Kauffman Stadium 7:37 PM
October 9 Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals Kauffman Stadium 3:45 PM
October 11 Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros Minute Maid Park 4:10 PM
October 12† Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros Minute Maid Park TBD
October 14† Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals Kauffman Stadium TBD

So lets take a quick look at how these teams stack up in this series. This could be a high scoring series. Both teams can hit. Kansas City has five guys, Mike Moustakas, Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer, and Lorenzo Cain that had more than 500 at bats and hit over .290. Ben Zobrist has had an impact since coming over at the trade deadline, hitting .284 with 7 homers in 59 games with Kansas City. The Royals takes the same approach at the plate this year that they did last year, which got them all the way to the World Series. They don't have to beat the tar out of you with the long ball, they are a very patient team at the plate. Sure Kansas City was near the bottom in the power department, hitting 140 home runs during the season. They were still very productive in the scoring, putting up 724 runs during the year, which was good enough to finish 7th in the AL. Houston is at the other end of the scale. They finished 2nd in the AL in home runs, hitting 230 for the year, trailing only the Jays. Here's how you know Houston has balance in the power department. Evan Gattis, Luis Valbuena, Colby Rasmus, Chris Carter, and Carlos Correa all hit over 20 homers in 2015. Yes chicks do dig the longball, but it does come with a price, as Houston struck out 1,392 times, good for second most in baseball behind the Cubs. In fact, the only Houston regular who had a batting average over 300 for the year was Jose Altuve, who finished with a .313 average. Houston may outslug you, but the Royals have the advantage to where they can wear down the opposing pitching.

Speaking of pitching, Houston just used their best pitcher, Dallas Dallas Keuchel to get past the Yankees. Because of that, he won't be available to the Astros until game three. If Houston wants to stand a chance in the firs two games, they need Scott Kazmir and Collin McHugh to play well, but that hasn't exactly been a fit for Kazmir since joining the Astros. One big thing that Houston is going to have a problem in is their bullpen, who hasn't exactly been lights out this year. In order to go deep in the playoffs, you need to have a solid bullpen at least. They can get away with being good but not great. Houston's pen doesn't have that at the moment. Because Houston has an ace you can trust (I trust Keuchel a little more than Queto for KC). I think the Astros pitchers. I just feel that the Royals pitchers have enough to take the power out of the Hoston bats.

Once you take the power out of the Astrtos bats, they have more trouble scoring runs. Kansas City isn't as likely to give up the long balls as the Yankees did. Lets face it Kauffman Stadium and Minute Maid Park are both good hitters parks, but they aren't as home friendly as Yankee Stadium. Houston is going to give the Royals a decent run, but Kansas City has the more balanced lineup, and a more playoff experienced lineup.

Pick: Kansas City in 4!

Next up is the American League West Champions the Texas Rangers taking on the American League East Champions the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto won the East with a 93-69 record, finishing six games ahead of the New York Yankees. The 93 wins that the Jays finished with are the most wins the team has had in a years since winning the East (and World Series) in 1993. That was also the last time the Blue Jays made the playoffs. Toronto is 21-20 lifetime in the playoffs. Meanwhile the Rangers come in with a 88-74 record, finishing two games ahead of the Astros. This marks the firs time since 2012 that the Rangers are a playoff team. Texas hasn't won a playoff series since going to the 2011 World Series. Texas is 19-25 lifetime in the post season, and have made two World Series, losing in back to back years in 2010 and 2011. This is the first meeting in the playoffs between the two teams. Toronto won four of the six meetings between the two teams this season.

Here are the date and times for every game in this series:
October 8 Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays Rogers Centre 3:37 PM
October 9 Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays Rogers Centre 12:30 PM
October 11 Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers Globe Life Park in Arlington 8:00 PM
October 12† Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers Globe Life Park in Arlington TBD
October 14† Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays Rogers Centre TBD

Lets take a look at how these two teams stack up. Toronto was the best power hitting team in all of baseball, slugging 232 home runs as a team. Not only did they pound the tar out of the ball, the Jays also lead the entire league in runs scored (891), OBP (.340), SLG (.457), and OPS (.797), and finished second in batting average (.269). Sure there are names in the lineup that people know like Edwin Edwin Encarnacion, a guy who hit 39 home runs and drove in 111 runs. Then there's the big name in the lineup in the form of Jose Bautista, who belted 40 homers and drove in 114 runs. Those two guys are good, but the one who has topped them all is the guy who is probably going to win MVP in the American League this year, Josh Donaldson. Donaldson hit .297 on the year with a staggering 41 homers and 123 RBIs. Yeah, there's plenty of pop in the middle of that lineup. Chris Colabello, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, Justin Smok have all had an impact on that Jays lineup, making it one of the most feared offenses in the last decade in baseball. Now for texas, a team that was able to score 751 runs during the regular season. The only team that may have an offense that can outbalst and outscore the Rangers is the team they happen to be playing, the Jays. Prince Fielder came back with a bang this season, finishing with a .305 average, 23 home runs and 98 RBIs. After missing last year with the neck injury, its safe to say the big guy is back to his old form (or as close to his old form as he can be). Texas can hit the ball hard as well, with guys in the lineup like Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo, Mike Napoli and the recent return of Josh Hamilton has made Texas a very powerful, dangerous offense. It can beat almost anybody in the playoffs. Almost.

Then there's the pitching staffs. Both teams made deals at the deadline to bolster the rotations. Texas brought in Cole Hammels from Philly to help get over the hump, which they did. Throw in Yovani Gallardo, and his 13 wins, and Colby Lewis and his 17 wins. Texas has a good pitching staff there's no denying that. But what seperates them from Toronto is the ace. Hammels is good but David Price is just that much better. When he came into the Jays, it made them a bigger threat than they already were. even though he hasn't looked the same, the Jays still have 15 wins from Mark Buehrle, they got another .500 season from RA Dickey (who finished 11-11). Toronto also managed to get double digits in wins from Marco Estrada (13-8) and Drew Hutchison (13-5). Roberto Osuna also managed to save 20 games (in 23 chances). I don't think the pen is going to play that much of a factor. This is going to be a high scoring series to watch, that's for sure.

Don;'t get me wrong, I'm not diminishing anything that Texas has done this year. They were down in a deficit at the all star break and most didn't see them pulling off what they managed to. Now that they're here, they have the tough task of going to one of the most hostile environments over the last two months, the Rogers Center. Texas may steal again, but its going to be too much for them to handle.

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays in 4!

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