Monday, May 16, 2016

NBA Conference Finals Preview

When this whole journey started last month, there were sixteen teams standing in the chase. The top seeds in both conferences are still standing, which anybody who has followed basketball could have predicted. The other two teams are a bit of a surprise. Toronto hasn't seen this deep a run ion the playoffs ever, and Oklahoma City pulled off a huge upset to get here. Seven games in each conference will determine who gets to face off for the right to play for the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Enough talk, lets rock. Here's how the conference finals are going to go down.

First up, we go to the Eastern Conference. Its the top seeded Cleveland Cavaliers taking on the 2nd seeded Toronto Raptors. For the 2nd year in a row, the Cavaliers are playing in the Eastern Conference Finals. They got here by sweeping Detroit in the opening round and then sweeping Atlanta in the 2nd round. Cleveland has now made the Eastern Conference Finals for the fourth time in franchise history, going 3-1 in said series. Cleveland is now 92-84 lifetime in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors are playing in their first ever Eastern Conference Finals. They got here by beating Indiana in seven games, following that up with a seven game series win over Miami. Toronto has never played in the Eastern Conference Finals before. They are 30-40 lifetime in the playoffs. This is the first meeting in the playoffs between the Cavaliers and Raptors. Toronto took two of the three meetings between the teams during the regular season.

Here are the dates and times of every game in this series:
May 17 8:30 PM Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, Ohio
May 19 8:30 PM Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, Ohio
May 21 8:30 PM Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Ontario
May 23 8:30 PM Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Ontario
May 25 8:30 PM Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers* Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, Ohio
May 27 8:30 PM Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors* Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Ontario
May 29 8:30 PM Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers* Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, Ohio

Cleveland comes into this series very well rested, having swept both of their previous two rounds. In their first eight games, Cleveland has really only played three close games (five point two point and one point wins). They've dominated in every other game they've played. Kyrie Irving and Lebron James are carrying the Cleveland offense, with both guys averaging over twenty points a night. Lebron is the best player on the court in the East, maybe in the playoffs (other than Steph Curry) and the Raptors are going to have a big task trying to shut him down in this series. Also you have to take into account that the Cavs are getting double digits scoring averages from both Kevin Love and JR Smith, so it shows that its not just a two man show in Cleveland. To make this tougher on the Raptors, Cleveland has been doing something they haven't really done much in the past, and that is hitting 3-pointers. Cleveland has knocked down 134 trifectas in the postseason, good for 16.8 per game, which is actually operating at a better clip right now then the best three point shooting team in the league, the Warriors.

Toronto is not exactly a pushover. They have shown more heart and desire than any other team so far in the playoffs. DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, and Jonas Valanciunas have been carrying the offensive load for the Raptors in this years playoffs. But it doesn't get easy here for Toronto. Valanciunas is hurt, dealing with an ankle injury. So that takes a big factor out of play for the Raptors. But wait it gets worse. Toronto's offense has a bad habit of stalling in the fourth quarter when the team has a lead. That's a scary stat to think about, making this factor worse when you realize they're going up against the Cavaliers, the best team in the Eastern Conference. And if Toronto had trouble trying to control Paul George of the Pacers in the opening round, they're really going to have problems trying to shut down the best player in the game.

This series may not even be close. Unless there is a catastrophic meltdown by Cleveland, which will not happen, the Raptors don't stand a chance. Sure Toronto owned Cleveland on home court during the regular season, but what happened during the regular season don't mean jack squat. Toronto MAY get lucky and steal a game at home, but they aren't going to steal the series.

Pick: Cavaliers in 5!

Moving to the Western Conference Finals, its the top seeded Golden State Warriors taking on the 3rd seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Golden State has made it back to the Western Conference Finals for the 2nd straight year. They got here by dispatching Houston in five in the opening round, following that up with a five game series win over Portland. This marks the 3rd time since 1975, and the 2nd year in a row, that the Warriors are playing in the West Finals. Golden State is now 75-70 all time in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City got here by taking out Dallas in five in the opening round, following that up with a six game series win over San Antonio. Oklahoma City is playing in the Western Conference Finals for 2nd time in three years and the 4th time in the last six seasons. The Thunder are now 47-37 lifetime in the playoffs. This is the third meeting in the playoffs between the Warriors and Thunder, with both teams tied at one a piece (Both previous meetings where when the Thunder were still known as the Seattle SuperSonics). Golden State won all three meetings between these teams during the regular season.

Here's the dates and times for every game in this series:
May 16 9:00 PM Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
May 18 9:00 PM Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
May 22 8:00 PM Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
May 24 9:00 PM Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
May 26 9:00 PM Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors* Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
May 28 9:00 PM Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder* Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
May 30 9:00 PM Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors* Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

When the post season started, everybody expected it to be a Warriors-Spurs Western Conference Finals. Somebody forgot to tell the Thunder that. Oklahoma City has played fantastic basketball right now, making it look a little easy in dispatching the Spurs in six games. This series is going to be a fun one to watch. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook can both win games by themselves if they get hot. Lets not sleep on Enes Kanter and Steven Adams, both guys can be a force on the boards. Then, you also have Serge Ibaka, Dion Waiters and Andre Roberson, all of whom are playing well in their designated roles. Most importantly, the squad's defense was sharp against the Spurs. The size that the Thunder have in the front court are going to cause big problems for the Warriors, who's only real big Andrew Bogut is questionable for Monday's Game 1 with a shoulder injury.

They are facing the best team in all of basketball in Golden State. Stephen Curry has missed time due to injury in the playoffs, but it really hasn't shown to be too much of an impact on the Warriors this year, because Golden State has gone right on rolling along. There is one slight knock against Golden State this year. The squad's tendency to get lazy defensively despite possessing an excellent cast of players on that end has haunted it at several points during the postseason. They had to go to overtime in game four and only pulled out a four point win in game five against Portland. But still, Steph Curry and Draymond Green should have shaken off the effects of some of their nagging injuries after a few days off and should come out ready to rock and roll against Oklahoma City.

After what Oklahoma City just did against San Antonio, it showed that they aren't going to be a pushover. However, Golden State's got the better offense, the extra gear the Warriors often find on defense and home-court advantage will prove just enough for head coach Steve Kerr's team to get past a hungry Thunder squad.

Pick: Warriors in 7!

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