Friday, October 14, 2016

ALCS Preview

Its been a while for both teams left standing in the American League. The Toronto Blue Jays haven't made the World Series since 2993, meanwhile Cleveland is look for its first World Series appearance since 1997. Both teams got here completing sweeps in the Divisional Round, Toronto taking out Texas and Cleveland downing Boston. This is going to be a battle of hot hitting teams, both powered, at least in the playoffs, by the long ball. So enough with the fluff, here's what we got for the American League Championship this year.

We have the American League Central Champions, the Cleveland Indians, taking on the American League Wild Card Winners, the Toronto Blue Jays. Cleveland won the Central with a 94-67 record. Then to start the playoffs, the Indians dispatched the Boston Red Sox in a three game sweep. Cleveland is now 47-42 all time in the playoffs. This will be Cleveland's fifth appearance in the ALCS. The Indians won the ALCS in 1995 and 1997 but would go on to lose the World Series both times. The Indians lost the 1998 and 2007 series.

As for the Toronto Blue Jays, their 89-73 record was good enough to get a Wild Card spot. The playoffs started for the Jays with a Wild Card game win over the Baltimore Orioles, they then followed it up with a three game sweep of the Texas Rangers in the ALDS. Toronto is now 26-26 all time in the post season. This will be Toronto's second consecutive ALCS appearance and seventh overall. The team lost the 2015 American League Championship Series to the eventual World Series champion Kansas City Royals. The Blue Jays had previously made consecutive ALCS appearances in 1991, 1992 and 1993, losing in the former but winning both the 1992 and 1993 World Series.

This will be the first postseason meeting between the Blue Jays and the Indians. This is the first ALCS since 2014 to feature two teams that had swept their ALDS opponents. The Indians won the regular season series, taking four of the seven meetings.

Here's the dates and times for every game in this series:
October 14 Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians Progressive Field 8:08 PM EDT
October 15 Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians Progressive Field 4:08 PM EDT
October 17 Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays Rogers Centre 8:08 PM EDT
October 18 Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays Rogers Centre 4:08 PM EDT
October 19 Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays Rogers Centre 4:08 PM EDT
October 21 Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians Progressive Field 8:08 PM EDT
October 22 Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians Progressive Field TBD

One of the things that helped both teams get to this point is their hot hitting. Toronto's had the power game working in the playoffs, something they had going for themselves last year as well. It was just a season ago that Toronto had the highest scoring offense in all of the American League. This year, it wasn't exactly the same thing as the team battled through injuries to get into a wild card spot. They got in never the less. Once the divisional round came up, it looked like Toronto's bats came alive again. They scored 22 runs in three games against Texas, which included eight long balls. Lets face it, the Jays are a home run hitting team and they're back to hitting that way again. Some might not think that could be a recipe for success in the playoffs, but hey, its been working for the Jays so far. Maybe this will be the year that it finally gets them over the hump for the first time since 1993.

During the season, Toronto took the final two games of a four game set at Rogers Center. Toronto has an even split amongst home and road games this year, which is important come the playoffs. Toronto won 46 home games and 43 more on the road. Scoring runs came in bunches in both home and road games. Toronto had a positive run differential both at home and on the road. Toronto's home record was better then its road record, but they had a higher run differential on the road (both were in the plus which is an advantage for the Jays). And don't knock them, Toronto's pitching staff of J.A Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada and Marcus Stroman have been pitching quite well in the playoffs. Sure they got knocked around a bit by Texas in the Divisional Round, but they did well enough to leave a lot of those Rangers hitters stranded on the basepaths during that three game sweep.

Here's though where I think Cleveland may have an advantage. They've got home field in this series, something which has been huge for the Tribe this year. Cleveland won 53 games at home, the only team with more home wins in all of baseball then Cleveland was the Chicago Cubs. Cleveland also has a +105 run differential at home, one of the best in baseball. They aren't quite as good on the road, as they are in the negative in run differential on the road, but they still do have a winning record on the road too, at 41-39. Most of the damage that the Tribe did this year was at home, which is why having home field for them could be huge in this series.

And I know the Toronto bats are waking up, but who knows if they can keep it up against Cleveland. i mean the Red Sox had the best offense in the AL, yet the Indians held Boston to just seven runs and a .136 batting average with runners in scoring position in a three-game sweep, something that no other pitching staff was able to do this entire season. Plus Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin, and Corey Kluber are going to be tough to deal with if your Boston. Oh yeah, lets not forget about the bullpen as well. Terry Francona wasn't shy about being aggressive with his bullpen against the Red Sox in the last round, so don't be too surprised if he's wanting to be doing that again in this round as well. Andrew Miller, Bryan Shaw, and Cody Allen faced 37 percent of the hitters the Red Sox sent to the plate in the ALDS. So if your Toronto you have an idea of what might happen in this series.

But the way I look at it, I don't know if Cleveland is going to get that lucky again in this series. This will be a very happy series for hitters that's for sure. Toronto's bats are coming around at the right time and Toronto's starting pitching has had the best ERA so far in the playoffs in the AL at 3.78. Cleveland is going to put up a fight, but at the end of the day, its not going to be enough

Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays in 7!

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