Saturday, January 21, 2017

NFL Championship Weekend Preview

It's time! We have four teams left standing. We had great football to watch last weekend after a slow start to the playoffs, we got quality football in Green Bay beating Dallas, and Pittsburgh hanging on to beat Kansas City. Now we have two of the final three games left of the season. Winners go on to play in Super Bowl 51, while the losers go home and watch on TV like the rest of the country. Three of the four quarterbacks that are still left standing in the playoffs have won at least one Super Bowl. Brady has four rings, last win coming in Super Bowl 49, Rodgers won his lone title at Super Bowl 45, and Ben Roethlisberger has a pair of titles, his last coming in Super Bowl 43. The only quarterback to never play in the big game is Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. So let's dive right into it. Here's how championship weekend goes down.

First up, at 3:05PM on Sunday, from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, the NFC North Champions, the Green Bay Packers, take on the NFC South Champions, the Atlanta Falcons. Green Bay won the North with a 10-6 record. They got the Conference Championship on the strength of a 38-13 win over the Giants in the Wild Card, then beat the Cowboys 34-31 in the Divisional Round. This marks the 2nd time in three years that the Packers are in the NFC title game, losing in 2014 to the Seahawks. Green Bay is looking to get back to the Super Bowl for the 6th time ever, and the first time since 2010. Green Bay is 32-21 lifetime in the playoffs. As for Atlanta, they won the NFC South with an 11-5 record. They got to this title game by beating the Seahawks 36-20 in the Divisional Round. Atlanta is playing in the NFC title game for just the 4th time ever, their first time playing in this game since losing to the 49ers in 2012. Atlanta is 8-12 lifetime in the post season.

This marks off the 4th ever meeting between Green Bay and Atlanta in the playoffs, with Green Bay holding a 2-1 edge in the playoffs. These teams met once during the regular season, with Atlanta coming away with a 33-32 win in week eight.

The Packers lead the all-time series 17-14 (including the postseason). Green Bay has won four of the past five meetings. Green bay maybe in a little trouble going into this football game, because they will not have the services of either Jordy Nelson, who's out with a rib injury, or Davante Adams, who's unsure with an ankle injury. This could leave Randall Cobb as the teams only proven wide receiver. But then again, Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers. He does have weapons to work with on offense to go along with in Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers, his tight ends. That and Green bay has re-established a run game thanks to Ty Montgomery. So Green Bay has enough talent to score. They can also defend as well, which is going to have to make the Falcons pay attention to the pressure that's going to get put on Matt Ryan.

As good as Green Bay has been this year, so to has Atlanta, which has put up numbers that are almost other worldly. Atlanta did score 540 points during the regular season to lead the league, and they did hang 38 points on Seattle last week. Both Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have been playing out of their minds on offense this year. On the other side of the ball, Vic Beasley Jr has been a total force for Atlanta this year, as he lead the NFL with 15.5 sacks this season. And with two of the top targets for Rodgers that could be out on Sunday, it could make the shut down game for Atlanta easier.

Look the Falcons are a very good team, and this game is going to be as exciting if not more so, then last weeks Green Bay-Dallas game. Atlanta is going to try and take advantage of Green Bay missing two of its better players. But Aaron Rodgers is just playing too good a brand of football right now and they get it done on Sunday.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, Atlanta 30

Next up, at 6:40PM, from Gillette Stadium, in Foxborough, Massachusetts, its the AFC North Champions, the Pittsburgh Steelers, taking on the AFC East Champions, the New England Patriots. Pittsburgh won the AFC North with an 11-5 record. They started off the playoff run by beating Miami 30-12, then followed that up by beating the Chiefs 18-16 in the Divisional Round. This marks the 15th time that the Steelers are playing in the AFC title game. Pittsburgh is 35-23 lifetime in the playoffs. As for New England, they went 14-2 during the regular season to win the AFC East, for the eight year in a row. New England beat Houston in the Divisional Round, 34-16, to make the AFC title game for the 6th year in a row. This now marks the 13th time ever that the Patriots are playing in the AFC title game. New england is 29-19 lifetime in the playoffs.

This marks the fifth postseason meeting between the teams and the third in a row that will occur in the AFC Championship Game. New England has won three of the four playoff meetings against Pittsburgh. These two teams faced off during week seven of the regular season, a 27-16 win by New England.

The biggest thing that the Patriots are going to have to work on is figuring out how to stop Le'Von Bell. Bell has played a huge role for the Steelers the last two weeks, despite not finding the End Zone last week. I mean just look at his numbers. He rushed for 170 yards last week and is the first player in NFL history to rush for at least 150 yards in each of his first two postseason games. Bell, who had 167 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the Wild Card win against Miami, has the two highest single-game rushing performances in franchise postseason history. And when your able to set the franchise record for rushing yards in back to back playoff games, that says a lot for how good a running back you are. And lets not forget about Antonio Brown, who had 108 yards last week. Thrown in Big Ben still slinging the football around, I like Pittsburgh's chances, from an offensive point of view. The Steelers defense has allowed a mere 28 points combined in the playoffs this year.

But the Patriots are no pushover. New England is 16-3 in home playoff games since the 2001 season. So it makes one wonder how tough its going to be for New England to lose in this game. Everybody knows how well Tom Brady and Bill Belichick work in tandem. But there are more pieces to this puzzle then just the coach and quarterback. Julian Edelman had eight catches for 137 yards against Houston. Edelman has 76 career postseason catches with the Patriots, the most in franchise history. To make this a tougher game for the Steelers, New England has a running game working right now, as Dion Lewis has had a big impact as of late. Then you have a good Patriots defense in the secondary, consisting of Logan Ryan, Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon, who each had an interception last week against Houston.

So where to go with this game? Sure New England has played great at home come playoff time, but they are facing a red hot Steelers team. A team that has won nine straight games. Pittsburgh is going to be in for a fight against the Pats on Sunday, but they will have enough talent to get over the hump. Steelers will take it.

Prediction: Steelers 34, Patriots 27

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