Saturday, January 5, 2019

NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview

The time has arrived. We started this journey back in September with 32 teams. All with one goal in mind, hoisting the Vince Lombardi trophy over their heads as the best team in the National Football League. After what was a pretty entertaining regular season, we got 12 teams left standing all fighting for the right to be called champion. Looking at last year and comparing it now, only three of the twelve teams that made the dance last season are back. The Eagles look to try and repeat as Champions, while Chicago looking for its first title since 85, Seattle looking for its first ring in four years, and Houston is looking to do something it's never done in reaching the big dance. The march to the big game starts right now. Here's a look at Wild Card Weekend.

First up, the Wild Card Winning Indianapolis Colts battle the AFC South Champion Houston Texans. After a 10-6 regular season, the Colts made the playoffs for the 28th time in franchise history. This marks the first playoff appearance for the Colts since 2014 and they haven't lost in the Wild Card round since 2012. Indy is 22-23 lifetime in the playoffs. Meanwhile the Texans went 11-5, winning the South for the 3rd time in the last four years. This will mark the 5th playoff appearance for the Texans, who haven't lost in the Wild Card round since 2015. Houston is 3-4 lifetime in the playoffs. This marks the first ever meeting between the two teams in the playoffs. The two teams split the two meetings during the season, Houston took the first meeting in September while the Colts won the 2nd meeting in December.

You can say the Colts season turned around in the overtime game early in the year, the one that the Texans won. After that tough OT loss. The Colts went on to win eight of the next nine games. Indy is coming into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league. Following a rough loss to the Jets, the Colts got on the right track by winning nine of its final ten games. Indy has had a pretty balanced attack, as Andrew Luck finished 5th in the NFL in passing yards this year and was showing flashes of his old self again. Marlon Mack had a good year, with 908 yards on the ground,. helping balance out the passing game. TY Hilton and Eric Ebron both cracked the top 40 in receiving yards this year, which shows a bit of a balance in the pass game for the Colts. Then there's the other side of the ball. The Indy D hasn't given up 30 or more points in a game since that loss to the Jets. They can hold the opposition in check and allow the offense to do its thing.

Houston has weapons to work with, well one big one anyway. Deandre Hopkins finished with the 2nd most receiving yards in the league during the year, only behind Julio Jones of Atlanta. Lamar Miller had himself a fine year, finishing 27 yards short of 1,000 on the season. At the same time, Deshaun Watson really started to come into his own under center. Watson had to deal with recovering from his knee injury last year. Houston also managed to turn their season around, running off a nine game win streak after losing its first three games. But they then split the final four games of the year, including a home loss to this very same Colts team.

Look I'm not taking anything away from what the Texans have. Yes getting home field advantage is great, but they fact that they split the final two games of the year hurts, and they're facing a red hot Colts team. Indy has been playing like a house of fire as of late and the only thing that stopped them from the division title was the fact that the Texans had their big win streak while the Colts got slogged down. Houston is also too top heavy, relying on Hopkins to carry the bulk of the offense. Indy's balance will be able to get them a win.

Prediction: Colts 27, Texans 21

Next up, the Wild Card winning Seattle Seahwaks will take on the NFC East Champion Dallas Cowboys. Dallas finished the year with a 10-6 record, claiming the NFC East title for the 3rd time in the last five years. This marks the 28th playoff appearance for the Boys, who last played in the Wild Card game in 2015. Dallas has a post season record of 34-27 all time. By going 10-6 on the season, it marks the 7th time in the last eight years that the Seahawks are in the playoffs. Seattle has been able to get past the first round in every playoff trip since 2004. Seattle sits at a 16-15 lifetime playoff mark. This marks the 2nd time ever these two teams will meet in the playoffs, with Seattle getting a Wild Card win in 2006. They had one meeting during the regular season, a Seahawks win in week three.

Its going to be a battle of the run games here. Both running backs, Ezekiel Elliott (1st) and Chris Carson (5th) are top five running backs. Sure, Zek makes the Dallas offense roll, but he's not the only offensive weapon that the Boys have. Amari Cooper lead the Boys in receiving with 725 yards, all this coming over in his trade from the Raiders. Dak finished with over 3,000 passing yards. He's going to be under the big microscope here. Everybody knows that Zek runs this offense but Dak needs to step his game up there. He got off to a slow start in his last playoff game, the loss to the Packers his rookie year. He needs to really find a way to lead the offense against a tough Seattle defense.

On the flip side, Russel Wilson has not had such a problem, he's got a ring. He also had more passing yards and a better overall game then Dak does. As mentioned before, Seattle does have a top five back in Chris Carson, and Seattle's leading receiver Tyler Locket finished just short of a thousand yard season. Seattle has balance on both sides of the ball that's going to make them very tough to beat.

Yes the Boys are 7-1 in their last eight and are 7-1 at home this year, but everybody knows that the playoffs are a totally different animal. Last time these two teams met in the playoffs, Tony Romo became famous for the botched hold on the field goal. This is a different Cowboys team, and they won't embarrass themselves that badly. But they will come up short in this game. Should Seattle be able to contain Zek, its going to make things tough for the Dallas offense.

Prediction: Seahawks 23, Cowboys 20

Now for the Sunday action. First its the Wild Card Winning Los Angeles Chargers taking on the AFC North Champion Baltimore Ravens. After finishing 12-4 and earning a wild card spot, this marks the 19th playoff appearance for the Chargers. Its the first time 2013 that the Chargers are making the post season. That was also the last time that the Chargers won a playoff game. All time, the Chargers are 11-17 in the playoffs. As for the Ravens, this marks the 11th playoff appearance in team history, winning the AFC North with a 10-6 record. This marks the first division title for Baltimore since 2012 and first playoff appearance for the team since 2014. That was the same year they won their last playoff game. Baltimore is 15-8 lifetime in the playoffs. This marks the first ever meeting between the teams in the playoffs. The two teams met once during the regular season, with the Ravens getting the win in week sixteen.

These two clubs just met two weeks ago, a game in which the Chargers gave up 16 unanswered points, falling 22-10  It sucks for the Chargers having to make the cross country flight to play the game, since they do have the better record at 12-4. That's what happens when you fall short of trying to catch Kansas City for winning the West title. Still, this is a very good football team. Los Angeles is 7-1 on the road this season, with a pretty solid offense to back that record up. Keenan Allen had 1,196 receiving yards on the year and became Philip Rivers favorite target as the year went on. The only thing that can leave one concerned is how well Rivers can handle the Ravens defense this time around. He should be able to go back, watch the tape and learn from his mistakes two weeks ago against this same team. Los Angles shouldn't have trouble getting pressure on Lamar Jackson with their edge rushers Joey Bosa and Mark Ingram.

Baltimore is now slouch, looking like a different team since Lamar Jackson has taken over at QB. They won their final three games, including the week sixteen win over these same Chargers, which shows the rest of the league that a team coming in hot could be tough to deal with. Their two best weapons around Jackson are Gus Edwards (718 Rush Yards) and John brown (715 Receiving Yards), and they may not matchup to the better numbers put up by the Chargers best weapons, but they do hold up nicely. baltimore's defense is now slouch as it was the best in football. This is a Ravens defense that racked up four sacks and eight quarterback hits on Rivers the last time they met. And we know Baltimore is going to dress up the defensive front to manipulate protection schemes. It's on Rivers to identify blitz situations and find open windows.

All that taken into account I think Los Angeles has the edge. Rivers won't be making the same mistakes now that he made two weeks ago when these two last met. He knows how to handle the pressure at this time of the year, whereas Lamar Jackson hasn't really been tested as much at this time of year. Not to take anything away from the Ravens, who are going to put up a damn good fight in this game, but at the end of the day, it's not going to be enough.

Prediction: Chargers 17, Ravens 14

Finally, its the Wild Card Winning Philadelphia Eagles taking on the NFC North Champion Chicago Bears. Philadelphia is the defending Super Bowl Champions, finishing this year at 9-7 earning a wild card spot. it marks the 27th time that the Eagles have made the playoffs. Prior to this year, the eagles had failed to get out of their first round the playoffs three of their last four matchups. The Eagles now sit at a record of 22-21 lifetime in the post season. As for the Bears, they won the NFC North with a 12-4 record, their first division title and playoff appearance since 2010. That was also the last time the Bears won a playoff round. Chicago has now appeared in the playoffs 27 times in their history and hold a record of 17-18 lifetime. this marks the fourth playoff meeting between the two teams, with the Eagles winning two of the first three matchups. These two teams did not meet during the regular season.

Philly is the defending World Champions and had to get a little help to make it this year. It took a win on their part over Washington and a Vikings loss to, ironically enough, the Bears on the final day. Philly saw Carson Wentz go down near the end of the season with a back injury, again relying on Nick Foles to lead them in the playoffs. He did a pretty good job of that last year, guiding them to the title. Philly comes in having won five of their final six games to close out the season and get back to the playoffs. One knock you could make against the Champs is their lack of a run game. Josh Adams lead the way with 511 yards on the ground. Its mostly an air attack in Philly, with Zach Ertz finishing with 1,163 yards receiving. Sure Nick Foles is 9-2 as a starter the last two years, including post season play, but this is going to be a different animal to face.

The Bears have one of the premier defenses in the game today. Linebackers Khalil Mack and Leonard Floyd are going to be used a lot to disrupt the release of Ertz and put pressure on Foles. Chicago has the horses on this side of the ball to create a lot of mismatches and do a lot of damage. On the other side of the ball, Mitchell Trubisky is starting to come into his own in this league. he may not have as much experience as his counterpart in Nick Foles, but he can hold his own. It also helps to get the support of Jordan Howard and his 935 rush yards behind you, that helps take the pressure off him. Chicago has a balanced offense that doesn't rely on just one weapon to make plays.

No disrespect to the champs, but they just don't have that feeling around them that they can take the whole thing this year. Chicago has something brewing in the Windy City, with a defense that reminds fans a little of what they had in the late 80's. Philly is good and they know how to get things done at this time of year, they just did it last year. But its a differnet story this year. Chicgao's defense is that good and then some. They take this game

Prediction: Bears 30, Eagles 21

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