Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Stanley Cup Play-In Predictions

A little delayed to the start this year and it looks different then what we are used to seeing, but the time has finally arrived. The 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs are here. We have a different format to kick off the playoffs this season. Because of the health issue that has struck the world, we are seeing playoff games being played in two hub cities. The Western Conference teams will play in Edmonton, while the Eastern Conference teams will play in Toronto. Top four seeds in each conference will get a bye and will play a round robin to determine seeds, while 5-12 will play best of five series to see who advances to the first round of the playoffs. So lets get right into it. Here's what the play in round looks like.

We start it off with the 5th seeded Pittsburgh Penguins taking on the 12th seeded Montreal Canadiens. Pittsburgh grabbed the 5th seed with 86 points, while Montreal finished with 71 points good for 12 place. This will be the third playoff meeting between these two teams, with Montreal winning both previous series. They last met in the 2010 Eastern Conference Semifinals, which Montreal won in seven games. Pittsburgh won two of the three games in this year's regular season series.

Here's the date and times for every game in this series:
August 1 Montreal Canadiens 8:00 p.m. Pittsburgh Penguins Scotiabank Arena
August 3 Montreal Canadiens 8:00 p.m. Pittsburgh Penguins Scotiabank Arena
August 5 Pittsburgh Penguins 8:00 p.m. Montreal Canadiens Scotiabank Arena
August 7 Pittsburgh Penguins TBD Montreal Canadiens Scotiabank Arena
August 8 Montreal Canadiens TBD Pittsburgh Penguins Scotiabank Arena

We start this off with the a team that wasn't supposed to be here going against a team that had a strong case for playoff contention despite injuries. Facts are the Habs were ten points out of a playoff spot and were possibly looking at a high draft pick by the time we shut everything down. With a goalie like Carey Price in net, Montreal could be able to make a surprise or two in this shortened series. Look what happened with Jaroslav Halak in 2010 when he got hot and took Montreal all the way to the East finals. Price has proven that he can live up to that and he can carry a team when he's in a groove.

The thing is, they're playing a Pens team that's kinda good, despite having players miss time with injuries. They were a decent team without Jake Gentzel in the lineup, cause he missed time with serious knee injury. But now he's back and healthy. And oh yeah, they still have guys named Crosby, Malkin and Letang. The Pens have the depth and scoring touch advantage to go on to the next round.

Pick: Penguins in 4


Next up, we have the 6th seeded Carolina Hurricanes taking on the 11th seeded New York Rangers. Carolina got here by grabbing 81 points good for 65th. Meanwhile New York landed in 11th by finishing with 79 points. This will be the first playoff meeting between these two teams. New York won all four games in this year's regular season series.

Here's the date and times for every game in this series:
August 1 New York Rangers 12:00 p.m. Carolina Hurricanes Scotiabank Arena
August 3 New York Rangers 12:00 p.m. Carolina Hurricanes Scotiabank Arena
August 4 Carolina Hurricanes 8:00 p.m. New York Rangers Scotiabank Arena
August 6 Carolina Hurricanes TBD New York Rangers Scotiabank Arena
August 8 New York Rangers TBD Carolina Hurricanes Scotiabank Arena

I started saying this at the end of February, the Rangers started to heat up a little at the right time. And this was a team that was predicted by most, me included, to miss out on the playoffs this year. But here we are. And the two biggest reasons, Igor Shesterkin and Artemi Panarin. Shesterkin has played pretty well in his brief stint here in the NHL and could play a big factor. Same thing for the Bread Man, who finished 3rd in the NHL in scoring this year with 95 points. He's been the leader on this team and worth every penny that he got paid at the start of the year.

They're going up against a Hurricanes team that went all the way to the Conference Finals a year ago, and are hoping to make the trip back there again this year. There is a little trouble in the Carolina nets but they have more than enough talent on this club to make up for it. Carolina gets Doug Hamilton back and is being carried by Sebastian Aho up front. He isn't quite as pungent as Panarin has been for the Rangers. Carolina has the experience that MIGHT be able to get them over the hump, but they going up against a hot Ranger team.

Pick: Hurricanes in 5

Next, its the 7th seeded New York Islanders taking on the 11th seeded Florida Panthers. The Islanders finished 7th with a total of 80 points on the year. Meanwhile, the Panthers finished 11th on the year with 78 points. This will be the second playoff meeting between these two teams. Their only previous meeting was in the 2016 Eastern Conference First Round, which New York won in six games. New York won all three games in this year's regular season series.

Here's the dates and times for every game in this series:
August 1 Florida Panthers 4:00 p.m. New York Islanders Scotiabank Arena
August 4 Florida Panthers 12:00 p.m. New York Islanders Scotiabank Arena
August 5 New York Islanders 12:00 p.m. Florida Panthers Scotiabank Arena
August 7 New York Islanders TBD Florida Panthers Scotiabank Arena
August 9 Florida Panthers TBD New York Islanders Scotiabank Arena

This is going to be an interesting series. Florida got Sergei Bobrovski in the offseason and he's been really good in the nets for Florida. Getting four players for Vinny Trocheck was a great trade. They can score,m but it really only seems to come in spurts.

The Islanders I think can almost match in net with Semyon Varlamov, who seems to have taken the starting job in goal. The defense is now getting healthy, with Adam Pelach back at full strength. Here's the only thing that worries me. The Isles limped badly into the pause, having lost 11 of their last 13 games. Won't lie that I'm a little scared going into this series. That being said, I think the Isles have enough experience to be able to win out here.

Pick: Islanders in 5

Finally, its the 8th seeded Toronto Maple Leafs taking on the 9th seeded Columbus Blue Jackets. Both teams finished with the exact same number of points, 81. Toronto got the 8th seed because they have more regulation wins then Columbus. This will be the first playoff meeting between these two teams. These teams split their two-game regular season series.

Here's the dates and times for every game in this series:
August 2 Columbus Blue Jackets 8:00 p.m. Toronto Maple Leafs Scotiabank Arena
August 4 Columbus Blue Jackets 4:00 p.m. Toronto Maple Leafs Scotiabank Arena
August 6 Toronto Maple Leafs TBD Columbus Blue Jackets Scotiabank Arena
August 7 Toronto Maple Leafs TBD Columbus Blue Jackets Scotiabank Arena
August 9 Columbus Blue Jackets TBD Toronto Maple Leafs Scotiabank Arena

Probably the most even matchup, at least based on seeding in this round. But both teams have their weaknesses. Toronto has a great top six in scoring, but the defense does leave a little something to be desired. Tavares, Marner and Matthews will have no problem leading Toronto to put the puck in the back of the net. And Freddy Andersen has started to settle down a bit in net. Toronto has some leaks on defense, which can make you wonder.

As for the Jackets, Elvis Merzlikins has come in hotter than a firecracker in the Jackets nets and they been riding him and then some down the stretch. And with John Tortorella's coaching style, this will be a tough, tight checking series. Only thing is I don't see the Jackets having the staying power to try and match punch for punch on offense with the Leafs.

Pick: Leafs in 4

Now we move to the Western Conference. Starting it off its the 5th seeded Edmonton Oilers taking on the 12 seeded Chicago Blackhawks. Edmonton grabbed the 5th seeded by finishing with 83 points. As for Chicago, they finished with 72 points to finish 12th. This will be the fifth playoff meeting between these two teams, with Edmonton winning three of the four previous series. They last met in the 1992 Clarence Campbell Conference Finals, which Chicago won in a four-game sweep. Chicago won two of the three games in this year's regular season series.

Here's the date and times for every game in this series:
August 1 Chicago Blackhawks 3:00 p.m. Edmonton Oilers Rogers Place
August 3 Chicago Blackhawks 10:30 p.m. Edmonton Oilers Rogers
August 5 Edmonton Oilers 10:30 p.m. Chicago Blackhawks Rogers Place
August 7 Edmonton Oilers TBD Chicago Blackhawks Rogers Place
August 8 Chicago Blackhawks TBD Edmonton Oilers Rogers Place

With the year that they've had this year, its a little surprising to see the Hawks made it to this point, but here we are. Kane, Toews and Keith are still the driving force behind this Hawks club, but there's a lack of scoring depth behind the big two up front that has me worried going into this series. Chicago had two 30 goal scorers and only one other player finish with more than twenty on the season. Domink Kahun gives the Hawks hope for the future, but its not really much to build off of right now.

Meanwhile the Oilers are carrying two of the best players in the game right now in Conor McDavid and league scoring champion Leon Draisaitl. Both guys have been more than doing their part in Edmonton this year, but its not just a two man show for the Oilers. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been pretty productive this year as well. Mike Smith and Miko Koskinen have been doing a fairly good job splitting time between the pipes this year. While the Hawks have the experience, Edmonton's Dynamic Duo has been better this year, by far, then what the Hawks have been boasting.

Pick: Oilers in 4

Next up, we have the 6th seeded Nashville Predators taking on the 11th seeded Arizona Coyotes. Nashville had 78 points to finish 5th, having more regulation wins then Vancouver to earn that spot. Arizona finished 11th with 78 points. This will be the second playoff meeting between these two teams. Their only previous meeting was in the 2012 Western Conference Semifinals, which Arizona won in five games. These teams split their two-game regular season series.

Here's the date and times for every game in this series:
August 2 Arizona Coyotes 2:00 p.m. Nashville Predators Rogers Place
August 4 Arizona Coyotes 2:30 p.m. Nashville Predators Rogers Place
August 5 Nashville Predators 2:30 p.m. Arizona Coyotes Rogers Place
August 7 Nashville Predators TBD Arizona Coyotes Rogers Place
August 9 Arizona Coyotes TBD Neshville Predators Rogers Place

This marks the second ever matchup between the two clubs come spring/summertime. This is the first time Arizona has made the playoffs in three years. They made a big splash by adding Taylor Hall into the mix. I think once he gets back and going again, the combination of Hall and Phil Kessel is going to be tough to go against. Throw in the teams only 20 goal scorer in Conor Garland, and the Coyotes could have something going.

Nashville, much like Arizona, has had an almost even split in net, but I'd like to think Pekka Rinne is going to get the bulk of the playing time right now. And the Preds can score no doubt, but they haven't had much success come this time of year since losing to the Penguins in the finals in 2017. Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg have been providing the fire power for Nashville this year, and both guys usually play better at this time of the year. I just have this sinking feeling like it might not be enough for the Preds to get over the hump this time.

Pick: Coyotes in 4

Next up, we have the 7th seeded Vancouver Canucks taking on the 10th seeded Minnesota Wild. Vancouver had 78 points, but because they finished with fewer regulation wins than Nashville, they ended up 7th. Minnesota finished with 77 points to finish 10th. This will be the second playoff meeting between these two teams. Their only previous meeting was in the 2003 Western Conference Semifinals, which Minnesota came back from a 3–1 series deficit to win in seven games. Minnesota won two of the three games in this year's regular season series.

Here's the dates and times for every game in this series:
August 2 Minnesota Wild 10:30 p.m. Vancouver Canucks Rogers Place
August 4 Minnesota Wild 10:45 p.m. Vancouver Canucks Rogers Place
August 6 Vancouver Canucks TBD Minnesota Wild Rogers Place
August 7 Vancouver Canucks TBD Minnesota Wild Rogers Place
August 9 Minnesota Wild TBD Vancouver Canucks Rogers Place

Minnesota had this series in hand during the regular season this year, taking two of the three games. Alex Stalock has seemingly taken over as the go to guy in the nets for the Wild, leading the way with 4 shutouts during the regular season. Kevin Fiala is leading the team in scoring, with veterans like Ryan Suter, Eric Staal, Zach Parise, and Mats Zuccarello right behind him. In fact, Fiala and Parise are the only Wild players to score 20 or more goals this season. Its a veteran cast leading this club.

They're going up against a team loaded with young talent that's making a hard charge in Vancouver. JT Miller lead the team in points, with young guns Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and Calder Trophy candidate Quinn Hughes providing offensive punch as well. Jacob Markstrom got plenty of work in the Canucks net this year and has more than rewarded the club with his play between the pipes this year. Minnesota can make some noise in this series, but the youth movement will win out at the end of the day.

Pick: Canucks in 4

Finally, we have the 8th seeded Calgary Flames taking on the 9th seeded Winnipeg Jets. Calgary finished with 79 points, good for 8th place. Winnipeg finished 9th with 80 points, but are the lower seed based on win percentage. This will be the first playoff meeting between these two teams. This will also be the first Stanley Cup playoff meeting between these two cities since 1987. Winnipeg won the only game in this year's regular season series, which was played outdoors.

Here's the dates and times of every game in this series:
August 1 Winnipeg Jets 10:30 p.m. Calgary Flames Rogers Place
August 3 Winnipeg Jets 2:30 p.m. Calgary Flames Rogers Place
August 4 Calgary Flames 6:45 p.m. Winnipeg Jets Rogers Place
August 6 Calgary Flames TBD Winnipeg Jets Rogers Place
August 8 Winnipeg Jets TBD Calgary Flames Rogers Place

Its a battle of flaws in this series, holes in the Flames offense against holes in the Jets defense. Calgary has gotten solid production from Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, and there is some decent balance in Calgary. Problem is it hasn't been steady enough, in my mind at least, to compensate for average play from David Rittich.

What has me intruiged is going to be the play of the Jets. This is a team who's defense looks like it was totally wiped off the face of the earth. Yet Connor Hellebuyck has played at times out of his mind this year. He's not only up for the Vezina Trophy for the leagues top goalie, I feel he should have been in the running for the Hart as MVP, he's been that good. And whatever mistakes are made on defense, the scoring punch in Winnipeg can more than make up for it. Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine, and Nikolaj Ehlers all finished with 20 or more goals this season. Calgary may get a game out of it, but the Jets are going to be too much to handle in this one.

Pick: Jets in 4

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